2020 has come to an end, and the challenges and unease of a year have recently turned into earnings reports, either pessimistic or optimistic. What happened in 2020, such as the epidemic and the complex international situation, is like an opened Pandora’s box.
The hope hidden at the bottom of the box exists in the hearts of industry professionals in different forms. As 2021 is approaching, this hope is ready to emerge.
Strong market demand boosts future growth
Power semiconductor devices are more and more widely used in the power management industry. In the future, industrial control, new energy, variable frequency home appliances, data centers, 5G, IOT and other fields will be the core areas for the rapid growth of power semiconductor devices, and the demand for IGBTs will continue to increase.
Power semiconductors are widely used in various Electronic products. In 2019, the market size of power semiconductors is US$17.5 billion. Yole predicts that the market size is expected to be US$22.5 billion in 2025, and the average annual growth rate from 2019 to 2025 is expected to be 4.3%.
①There are many kinds of consumer electronics and communication equipment. Computers, mobile phones and other products all need to use power chips in terms of power control and conversion.
②The communication industry is also a major terminal market for power chips. 5G will become the growth driver of power chips in the communication market. It is expected that the market size will reach US$56.2 billion by 2023, with a compound growth rate of about 10%.
③ The value of newly added power devices mainly comes from the three major systems of automobile power control, electric drive and battery. With the increase of pure electric vehicles, automobile power semiconductor devices will usher in a rise in volume and price.
④ At present, the development of IOT in the consumer electronics industry is prosperous, and the sales of TWS (wireless earphones) other than mobile phones will be better in 2020.
⑤ Smart watches, notebook computers and other related peripheral products will also drive the continuous high prosperity of the entire consumer electronics field, which will then be transmitted to the upstream semiconductor field.
Demand growth + price increase + domestic substitution in 2021
Since May 2019, the impact of the external environment on my country’s technology industry has continued to deepen, and the semiconductor industry has been suppressed in many ways.
Huawei’s expansion in the European and American markets has stagnated, the production and supply system has been severely damaged, and semiconductors and other fields have been subject to varying degrees of restrictions in terms of design, manufacturing, equipment, and materials.
Coupled with the impact of the global new crown epidemic, global power semiconductors will decline in 2020. QYResearch predicts a year-on-year decline of 9.1% in 2020. In 2021, it is expected to grow by 8.1% year-on-year driven by the demand for 5G mobile phones, electric vehicles and IOT.
In Q4 2020, the delivery time of ON Semiconductor power semiconductor products of Infineon, STMicroelectronics and Diodes has generally been extended, and the price of some MOSFET products has increased significantly.
According to Yole data, the global power device market size in 2019 is 17.5 billion US dollars, and China Industry Information Network predicts that it will reach 22.15 billion US dollars by 2023, with a compound growth rate of 6.07%.
With the steady and marginal improvement of the epidemic, downstream industries such as automobiles, home appliances, industrial control, and consumer electronics have gradually recovered, the demand for power semiconductor devices has rebounded significantly, and the demand for downstream replenishment of inventory is strong.
The leading manufacturers are more likely to generate economies of scale and lower channel costs, and the market share of the domestic substitution process will be more significant in the future.
In 2021, power semiconductors will usher in good development opportunities driven by demand growth + price increases + domestic substitution, and the industry chain will actively benefit.
Compared with foreign leading manufacturers, domestic manufacturers have lower revenue volume and share, and are expected to bring greater performance elasticity with the rapid growth of market segments.
MOSFET and IGBT will grow strongly in the next five years
In the current situation of serious shortages, the price increase trend of MOSFETs has already begun. It is expected that power devices will start to increase in price from channels, and then gradually evolve into an industry-wide price increase, which will bring about a significant increase in overall industry profits.
Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy and industrial control industries, it is predicted that in 2025, the overall IGBT module will reach 5.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 24% of the entire power semiconductor market.
With the rapid growth of the Internet of Everything and the number of base stations and data centers brought about by 5G, and the continuous improvement of the degree of automotive electronics, MOSFETs and IGBTs are expected to continue to increase in volume, driving the power semiconductor market to achieve rapid growth.
It is predicted that the number of new energy vehicles in the world is expected to reach 11 million in 2025, with China accounting for 50%, 28 million in 2030, and 56 million in 2040. In recent years, the rapid development of electric vehicles in China has also driven the development of the IGBT industry.
In the future, MOSFET and IGBT are the semiconductor power devices with the strongest growth in the next 5 years.
In 2021, the release of inhibitory demand for automobiles and consumer electronics will drive the overall recovery of the power semiconductor market. It is expected that the overall market revenue will rebound to 46 billion US dollars, and driven by the continuous downstream demand, it is expected to achieve an average annual average of 5 in the next 4 years. % compound growth rate, growing steadily.
Domestic IGBT companies LED by Star Semiconductor have developed rapidly, and have gradually made breakthroughs in the fields of industrial control, electric vehicles, wind power, photovoltaics, electric power and high-speed rail, and continuously increased their share.
With the deepening of automotive electronics and industrial system intelligence, it is expected that by 2022, in the downstream applications of MOSFETs, automobiles will account for 22%, computers and storage will account for 19%, and industry will account for 14%.
In the medium and long term, new energy vehicles, industrial automation, renewable energy facility construction and emerging consumer electronics will continue to drive industry growth.
SiC and GaN power semiconductors will go hand in hand
Global sales of SiC and GaN power semiconductors are expected to grow by double-digits each year over the next decade, reaching more than $5 billion by 2029.
Falling prices will eventually spur faster adoption of SiC MOSFET technology. In Contrast, GaN power transistors and GaN system integrated circuits have only recently appeared on the market.
From 2021, SiC MOSFETs will grow at a slightly faster rate and become the best-selling discrete SiC power devices. At the same time, although the reliability, price and performance of SiCJFETs are very good.
Omdia expects full SiC power modules to achieve more than $850 million in revenue by 2029 as they are prioritized for hybrid and electric vehicle powertrain inverters.
In contrast, hybrid SiC power modules will be mainly used in photovoltaic inverters, uninterruptible power supply systems and other industrial applications, resulting in a much slower growth rate.
There is huge space for substitution, and domestic enterprises are catching up
The annual sales of the domestic leading power device companies, China Resources Microelectronics, Star Semiconductor, New Clean Energy, Yangjie Technology, China Microelectronics, and Silan Microelectronics, are quite different from those of the international giants.
Moreover, the product structure is low-end, indicating that the market size of China’s power devices does not match the independence rate, and there is huge room for domestic substitution.
my country’s semiconductor manufacturers are mainly in the IDM mode, the production chain is relatively complete, and the products are mainly concentrated in low-end fields such as Diodes, low-voltage MOS devices, and thyristors. higher than that of Taiwanese manufacturers.
At present, China’s major power semiconductor manufacturers have a total of 29 power semiconductor production lines in the country, 6 production lines under construction or planned, and the wafer size is mainly 8 inches, 6 inches and below 6 inches.
In terms of 12-inch production lines, in addition to Wingtech, Hua Hong Semiconductor has a climbing production line, China Resources Micro plans to build one, and Silan Micro plans to invest 17 billion yuan to build two 12-inch production lines.
At present, the 8-inch capacity of major wafer foundries is already full. For example, domestic 8-inch foundries such as Hua Hong and China Resources Micro are close to full capacity utilization, and UMC’s 8-inch foundry capacity is fully loaded until the second half of 2021. .
Domestic mainstream fabs, such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and China Resources Micro, are currently maintaining full production capacity. The foundry orders are scheduled to be produced by the middle of next year, and the industry price rises one after another.
In the second half of 2020, UMC has increased the price of orders for new additional film production by 10%, and will increase the price of 8-inch wafer foundry in the first quarter of 2021. Among them, the capacity already booked will be increased by 5%-10% %, for subsequent orders with additional film production, the price after the price increase will be increased by 10-20%.
With the continuous recovery of the global economy, driven by the demand in new energy, home appliances, industrial control, consumer electronics and other fields, and the need to replenish inventory after the epidemic, the production capacity of 8-inch foundries will become more and more serious, and prices will rise. It is expected to last until the middle of next year.
In January 2021, Wingtech’s “12-inch automotive-grade power semiconductor wafer manufacturing project” started construction in Lingang New Area of Shanghai Free Trade Pilot Zone.
The total investment of the project is 12 billion yuan, and it is expected to produce 400,000 wafers per year. After packaging and testing, the power device products can be widely used in automotive electronics, computing and communication equipment and other fields.
From raw materials to design, wafer manufacturing and processing equipment, packaging and testing, power semiconductors can almost achieve localization of the entire industry chain, and are less dependent on European and American technology or equipment.
China is the world’s largest consumer of power semiconductors, and its growth rate is significantly higher than that of the world. In the future, under the demand for new energy, industrial control, inverter home appliances, and IOT equipment, China’s demand growth rate will continue to be higher than the world’s, and the industry will grow steadily + domestically produced alternative.
Therefore, power semiconductors will be one of the main areas in the semiconductor industry that can truly realize import substitution, and will achieve the first development.
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