According to TrendForce’s Semiconductor Research Office, the NAND Flash industry revenue in the third quarter reached US$14.5 billion, an increase of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, of which bit shipments increased by 9% quarter-on-quarter, and average unit sales prices decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter.
The overall market conditions can be attributed to the increase in consumer electronics stocks before the end of the peak season in the third quarter and the recovery in demand for smartphones. Among them, the PC market has not fallen due to the increase in demand for Chromebook bids due to remote teaching, but the required capacity of this product is higher Low, and limited to NAND Flash bit consumption.
In addition to the above, in order to avoid supply chain interruption and increase the inventory level of components and semi-finished products in the second quarter, server and data center customers started to reduce the purchase momentum, resulting in the loss of purchasing momentum and weak demand performance. Therefore, the third quarter In the quarter, the contract prices of various NAND Flash products turned down.
In addition, in the third quarter, Huawei stocks a large amount of goods. In addition to the MCP and UFS products required for smartphones, consumer, low-capacity MLC eMMC and component-side NAND wafers also have an impact. Bit shipments.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, server-side customers will continue their inventory reduction strategy, purchasing momentum continues to be weak, and Huawei-derived stocking momentum has faded, despite the increased stocking efforts of Chinese smartphone brands and the launch of Apple’s new machine. Still unable to get rid of the oversupply situation. On the supply side, Samsung and YMTC continue to expand their output plans, which will cause the oversupply situation to deteriorate again. Under the trend of continued price weakness, the total output value of NAND Flash is expected to decline in the fourth quarter.
Samsung Electronics (Samsung)
Affected by the destocking of server purchasing end, the overall weak demand performance caused the average sales price to drop by nearly 10%. However, in the third quarter, affected by the Huawei ban, which stimulated the last wave of stocking momentum, coupled with Apple’s new machine stocking, overall bit shipments grew by nearly 20% compared with the previous quarter. NAND Flash revenue in the third quarter reached US$4.809 billion, a quarterly increase of 5.9%.
In terms of production capacity, Samsung still maintains its expansion plan in the second phase of Xi’an; in terms of products, the output of V5 (92L) is still a large proportion. In order to maintain cost competitiveness, Samsung will work to assist customers in introducing V6 (128L) SSDs, UFS and other products are scheduled to be transferred significantly in 2021.
Benefited from Huawei’s stocking demand, Apple’s new machines, and demand for new game consoles, overall bit shipments increased by nearly 25% compared to the second quarter. However, due to the weakening of the overall NAND Flash market demand, the average unit price dropped by about 9% . In addition, this quarter also included the business performance after the acquisition of the Liteon SSD division, pushing its revenue to 3.101 billion US dollars, a quarterly increase of 24.6%.
In terms of production capacity, despite the addition of new production capacity from the K1 plant, the total production capacity remains unchanged, and there will be no significant increase until 2021. In terms of products, the current supply is still dominated by 96-layer products, and the 112-layer BiCS5 product is expected to start fermentation in the second half of 2021. It is worth noting that Kioxia officially announced on October 29 that Fab7 will be built in Yokkaichi in the first quarter of next year, and will be produced after 2022, mainly for the production of products after BiCS6.
Affected by the destocking of PC and server-side customers, the shipment momentum of client and enterprise SSD appears to be weak. Even though the retail and gaming sales performed better than originally expected, pushing up bit shipments by 1% from the previous quarter, it is still difficult to withstand the overall revenue decline. In addition, affected by changes in product structure and weaker market demand, the average unit price dropped by about 9%. In the third quarter, NAND Flash revenue reached US$2.078 billion, a quarterly decrease of 7.1%.
In terms of production capacity, in addition to continuing to invest resources in the K1 plant in Iwate County, Western Digital will also continue to participate in the construction of the new Fab 7 plant announced by Kioxia to compete with other NAND Flash brands. In terms of products, it is still expected that BiCS5 (112)-layer products will be widely adopted in 2021. Currently, 96-layer BiCS4 is still the main shipment, and PCIe 4.0 SSD products equipped with BiCS4 will be launched in the future.
As the product weight is more focused on the mobile category, SK hynix still has a 9% growth in its bit shipments in the third quarter thanks to the new iPhone, game console products and Huawei’s stockpiling. However, it was also affected by server-side destocking. In addition to the decline in the proportion of SSD shipments below 45%, the average sales price also fell by about 10%. The overall NAND Flash revenue was 1.643 billion US dollars, a quarterly decrease of 3.1%.
In terms of production capacity, there is no significant change. The scale of the film is expected to be maintained until 2021; in terms of products, in order to improve cost advantages, we are still committed to promoting customers to adopt the better cost-effective 96 and 128-layer product solutions, of which the output of 128-layer products is expected It can reach 30% by the end of the year. As for the server side, it will still take some time to complete the import. It is worth mentioning that SK Hynix announced the acquisition of Intel NAND Flash on October 20. TrendForce TrendForce said that the acquisition will help it strengthen the weaker QLC and enterprise SSD areas and improve the overall performance. NAND Flash market occupies the second place.
Micron’s NAND Flash revenue in the third quarter reached US$1.53 billion, a quarterly decrease of 8.1%. Through continuous improvement of the product sales structure, its share of wafer sales in the channel has dropped again. However, due to the weakening of the overall NAND Flash market conditions, the average unit price of this quarter has still dropped by nearly 8%; however, the overall bit shipments are in the momentum of Huawei’s stocking With the help, it was able to be equal to the second season.
In terms of manufacturing process, 128-layer RG (Replacement Gate) products have been shipped, but the follow-up focus is still on the 176-layer products that will be launched next year. Products including client SSD, UFS and other products shipped to the brand will be directly transferred to the 176-layer. It is expected to send samples before the second quarter of 2021. In terms of product structure, the proportion of its QLC shipments has also continued to increase, becoming the main choice other than Intel in the market.
Directly impacted by the destocking of server-side customers, Intel’s high market share in enterprise SSDs in the past has become a pressure, causing bit shipments in this quarter to decrease by nearly 25% compared to the previous quarter; coupled with the decline in prices due to weak demand, The average unit price dropped by about 10%. Under the condition of falling price and volume, NAND Flash revenue in the third quarter was only 1.153 billion US dollars, a quarterly decrease of 30.5%.
In terms of production capacity, there is no plan to expand this year. The Dalian plant still maintains the original production capacity. Although there is an expansion plan in 2021, most of the long-term expansion benefits will be attributed to SK Hynix. In terms of product and layer planning, the focus is on enterprise SSDs. The 144-layer products will continue to be sampled for customers to import, and the volume is expected to be increased in 2021.
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